Home > Main > Are Bond Vigilantes the Chicago Cubs of the Financial World? “Wait till next year!”

Are Bond Vigilantes the Chicago Cubs of the Financial World? “Wait till next year!”

May 31, 2011

The empirical data has an anti-Bond Vigilante bias

The Chicago Cubs haven’t won the world series for over 100 years.  If you’ve never seen the list of things that have happened since the Cubs last won the world series, its a huge laugh.

The event that strikes me the most is:

Women gain the right to vote in the U.S.

I  am starting to wonder if the Bond Vigilantes aren’t the Chicago Cubs of the Financial world.

Here is a easy to read chart I put together a while back.  Our borrowing costs were highest when our debt to GDP was lowest.  Our borrowing costs are lowest now that our debt to GDP is the highest.  It isn’t even close.  I am not cherry picking data – this is a 50 year long series of data.

These warnings about being able to borrow money do not look at empirical data at all.

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  1. Clonal Antibody
    May 31, 2011 at 6:50 pm

    What is the correlation coefficient if you regress one on the other

    • TC
      May 31, 2011 at 8:41 pm

      -.59

      I didn’t do a full regression – I need to fire up R.

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