Home > Main > Tax collection numbers are up huge in March

Tax collection numbers are up huge in March

March 11, 2011

I just got a brief note from The Daily Jobs update.  The DJU tracks the reported tax receipts from the U.S. Treasury as a way to look at the jobs market.  Because these tax numbers are never adjusted, it is a fantastic real time window to what is happening in the U.S. job market.  Think about it – nobody pays taxes unless they have to, so looking at the real time, never adjusted numbers is about as good as you can get for a real time pulse of the economy.

The Daily Jobs update is the only site I subscribe to – I can find nearly everything else on the web easily.

On to the great news – unadjusted tax reciepts are up nearly 10% from March last year. These are the raw numbers  – remember we had a huge payroll tax cut.  Once you adjust the numbers to accomidate the tax cut and census hiring from last year, the U.S. is collecting over 13% more in taxes than it did last year!  Wow!

That is actually quite strong economic growth.   I have a chart of the BEA personal tax numbers from FRED, and 13% qualifies for some of the strongest YoY tax growth since 1980. I said before that people are likely missing the turn in employment, and I still think this is the case.  We have a very strong economy right now with low inflation.  If oil can get below $70, we’re in for the largest economic boom of my lifetime.

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