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Markets say: “Peaceful transfer of Power in Egypt, no contagion”

January 31, 2011

The number of people in the streets vs. the amount of violence is astounding.  I don’t have much to say on the future path of the protests because I am not a expert in the Middle East. I do know that Gold is down this morning despite the protests and what appears to be the end game for an overthrow.  Treasuries are down too.  If people thought that Egypt was going to end up as a failed nation for a few years, and that Iran would face a violent revolution, Gold and Tresuries would be much higher.  Using the recent market action as a gauge, people expect a largely peaceful transition of power.

In the video above, you can see that there is a significant component of people who think that the worst things have been orchestrated by the government as an excuse to use violence against the protestors.  Notice the word “rioters” has been nearly fully replaced by “protestors” in all of the coverage.  It is clear these people are not destroying much property. In any random interview with people on the street they seem quite “regular joe”, just normal (mostly young) people looking for a representative government.

Go for it!   People of Egypt, I walk with you.  Democracy is messy and worth the mess.

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